The Two Faces of AI

 

I’m torn…My vocation entails teaching leaders how to solve complex problems both to protect the core business, and to ignite new Growth. My avocation is music - I’m a member of an international band comprising two grizzled veterans & brilliant young players from Europe’s best music schools. In both my vocation & avocation, AI is a blessing and a curse.

Which one will prevail?

AI and My Vocation

AI helps us protect the core business by enabling our management system and helping make problems visible. AI collects data, analyzes value streams, and helps predict hot spots. At the same time, I’m painfully aware that AI agents are shrinking entry level jobs. AI agents are good at core admin tasks & the basic research & analysis new team members used to do. Nowadays, getting that crucial first job is much harder.

Our new Growth work is focused largely on the consumer goods & financial services industries. AI agents enable our sprints. We can run many more experiments & harvest learning quicker.  AI agents also help us analyze & repurpose the existing assets. Years worth of social media content, for example, can be quickly analyzed & reused for new sprints.  We ‘fail fast, fail forward’ with breathless ease.  New assets can be developed & tested while we sleep.

As an engineer, I’m admire & celebrate the splendid engineering & continuous problem solving around neural networks the past twenty years.  Bravo!

I’m also aware that my fellow engineers & I lack the moral & philosophical chops to grapple with the biggest moral challenge of our age: How to deploy the AI genie so as to enhance our lives and reduce suffering while sustaining our core values?

AI and My Avocation

As a musician, I’m acutely aware of AI’s devasting effects on the creator economy. Musicians, writers, journalists, graphic designers, filmmakers and other creators have largely been obsolesced.  Tech companies ‘scrub’ everything they can find and thereby train their ML monsters.  Then they resell us AI slop at twenty bucks a month. Some say we are witnessing the greatest theft of IP in history,

I try to be a good mentor for our young players. One of my core messages is: “AI has destroyed the willingness to pay for creators’ work. We have to accept that hard fact & adapt.  How do we adapt? By becoming ambidextrous.  Develop a second capability that will put food on the table. Be a carpenter, electrician, engineer, teacher, lawyer etc. I do not want you to end up homeless.”

Our band does not use AI to create music – that is unthinkable. We play our instruments with our own hands, we will never use autotune or anything like it. But AI does reduce hassle in the studio. For example, AI can handle the tedious task of eliminating overly loud breathing between vocal phrases.  (I’m a loud breather…).

AI agents help us curate & repurpose our social media assets, as we do in my day job. I engaged a young engineer to develop an AI agent that selects potentially viral content, creates thumbnails & templates for the channels we’re targeting (e.g. YouTube, Instagram, TikTok). AI analyzes a given musical piece’s performance according to our key metrics (Streams, Click-through rate, average watch duration etc.).  Needless to say, I also use him in my day job.

In summary, AI is both a blessing and a curse - in my vocation and avocation.  No wonder I’m torn.

Best wishes,

Pascal Dennis         E: pascal.dennis@leansystems.org

First We Make the Tool – Then the Tool Makes Us

 

I paraphrases McLuhan paraphrasing Churchill. Both knew something about shaping human consciousness. Half a century ago we began an extraordinary experiment by making the personal computer widely available. With Agentic AI, we’re entering a new phase. What would McLuhan & Churchill say?

The Strange Case of Norway

In 2016, Norway gave every child in the country their own iPad or similar digital device. Today Norway is restricting and/or banning digital devices from primary schools. Their rationale: declining literacy & cognitive ability, distraction & reduced focus, and declining social & mental health.

Are we not running a version of Norway’s experiment in private & public organizations around the world? There are two hypothesis in play here:

1.     IF we provide our people with AI tools, THEN we’ll create value – smarter innovation, better processes, higher productivity & quality, happier team members & customers.

2.     IF we do not do this, THEN we’ll fall hopelessly behind.

What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

First we make the tool, then the tool makes us. How does AI make us? On the plus side, AI saves time & effort. In earlier blogs I’ve described how AI agents can free us from the tyranny of the ‘How,’ so we can concentrate on the ‘What.’  I’ve described how AI agents enable our innovation sprints, freeing us up to focus on the ideal product, service, and customer experience.

Will AI & AI agents degrade our ability to think & to create?

Will we see a repeat of Norway’s experience in our public & private organizations? AI is a boon to lazy, dishonest, and unimaginative. Why write, draw, compose, imagine something when you can steal it? We’re seeing AI’s devastating effect on creator economies. Will art & creative endeavour become extinct? It’s no longer an unimaginable question.

There are notorious Tech execs, for example, who boast about ‘gamifying’ music creation. Why play an instrument when you can scrape all the music ever created, pour it in into the gaping maw of your AI, and charge a monthly fee for access? ‘Making music is too hard,’ a Tech Socrates opined recently. ‘You have to learn an instrument & scales, and you have to practice. Our app makes it really easy.’ A similar process is unfolding for essays & other long-form writing, journalism, graphic arts, novels and short stories, and film.

Use It or Lose It

AI & AI agents can make us stupid. How to sustain our edge? Do it yourself – with the help of your AI assistant. Building on earlier articles, we must recognize that AI agents are akin to the big blue Genie in Disney’s Aladdin. They're capable of handling the ‘How’ but hopeless at the What & Why, which is where humans excel. In my view the centaur metaphor – human + machine – remains optimal.

Humans should therefore focus on the What & Why, which includes building alignment around a shared vision, and on deploying the plan to the front line. Humans must build the management system that enables fluid responses to emerging issues, and the front-line capability needed to continually solve problems.

We should engage our big blue Genies in the How, where they excel. And we must continually exercise our cognitive muscles by solving strategic management problems as they arise. The OpEx/Lean and Innovation fundamentals described in my blog, and books remain valid and essential. We just have an eccentric but highly capable new team member to help us.

Best wishes,

Pascal Dennis         E: pascal.dennis@leansystems.org

Strategy & Agentic AI – This Changes Everything

 

We’re wrapping up one strategy cycle and beginning another. The leader team is capable, smart & funny, and pushed each another in a healthy way. (I’m their teacher.) This is the first year we’ve seriously applied Agentic AI. What are we learning?

Strategy = What, Why, How

What are we trying to achieve? Why do we want to do this? How do we intend to do it? Strategy entails answering these questions with stories and making discrete choices. “We are going to play here, and not there. We are going to this – and not that. We need this kind of management system and those capabilities to pull it off.”

How has always been our biggest constraint, no? Do we have the data, manpower, and analytical horsepower? Can we grasp & master the complexity in the market, and in our supply chain? Can we anticipate & coordinate changes in demand & supply, while levelling up the performance of our people, machinery, and value streams?

Escaping the Tyranny of the How

How does all this change in an AI world? AI agents make the How much easier. Case in point: igniting new Growth is a core theme in the strategy sessions I described above. Key tactics entail selling existing offerings in new customer segments, and new offerings in existing markets. We have a ton of historical data and related content on the customer, what do they value, and why do they buy, including a rich catalogue of social media content.

If only we could repurpose this treasure trove and thereby run quick experiments to validate our Growth hypotheses. But how are we going to do this? Such work requires judgement & experience. We can’t hire more people and there is a ton of other work to do. Our Growth-related teams are facing burn out & morale may become an issue.

The senior team expressed all these concerns & clearly felt the tyranny of the How. But the How was no longer our constraint. In fact, we able to engage young AI-savvy team members who easily built an elegant AI agent that does the heavy lifting. The AI agent scanned our voluminous inventory, clipped relevant content, and developed necessary templates, and posting schedules congruent with the projects at hand. Taste, finesse and judgement were needed of course to curate & mold the content into a coherent experiment plan. Now we have to execute the needed sprints with intelligence, reflect on results & pivot as required.

Shifting Constraints - From the How to the What

In other words, the strategic focus is shifting from the How – to the What. The constraint is now our imagination, experience, taste, and business savvy. It’s as if we’ve found a magic lantern, rubbed it, and are confronted with a big blue Genie – who will take care of the How. ‘Your wish is my command.’

And so, the constraint is now: What do we really want to do? What’s our shining city on the hill? What does success look like? What’s our ideal condition?

What does all this mean for us? For a start, intuition, taste, and business savvy will become invaluable. AI agents are like very smart research assistants. They’re great at the How but not so good at the Why or the What. Savvy business leaders, by contrast, intuit their customers & market, supply chain & factories, partnerships and relationships with regulators, universities & other important players. They have good taste and know that ‘This will fly, but that will not – unless of course, we make these kinds of changes and present them in that way.’ This is what I mean by taste – knowing how to do, knowing what will fly and what will not.

Do we appreciate how big a shift this represents & the implications for leaders? On a personal level, my role as a teacher & mentor is evolving into curator of taste, shaper of what’s possible, and nurturer of the imagination.

Best wishes,

Pascal Dennis         E: pascal.dennis@leansystems.org

The Magic Lamp – Making Strategy Fun Again (Part 4)

 

Strategy deployment & execution are entering uncharted waters.  A magical capability is emerging, a ‘big blue genie’ if you will, of awesome promise, and more than a little peril. How do we harness the Genie’s power while mitigating the risks? What does it mean for Leaders & the practice of management?

The Fundamental Questions of Strategy

Almost all strategies can be expressed in terms of the marvelous mnemonic What, Why, How:

·       What are we trying to achieve?

·       Why do we want to do this?

·       How will we do this?

Indeed, the leader’s Job One is defining our Aspiration (What), rationale (Why) and winning logic (a high-level expression of How). Up until very recently, our What has always been constrained by the How.  Do we have the workforce, technology, machinery, capacity, governance & management system, supply chain, time and energy? Do we have the financial resources to plug gaps in any of these?

My Japanese senseis always encouraged me to imagine the ‘Ideal Condition’.  What does perfection look like?  Imagine the perfect process, production line, value stream, factory, and new model launch. As my practice expanded into new Growth using exponential methods, I tried to imagine the perfect customer journey, innovation sprint, experiment cycle, MLP, MMP, MVP, senior leader playback & pitch, and the like.

But I’ve always felt the constraining How.  Just how are we going to do this, given all the blockers including our ever-present resource constraints? I know I’m not alone.  Keeping an eye on the How as you define the What & Why is an element of prudent leadership. For example, asking a team to do something that is physically impossible is a morale killer. (Do they have any idea what we have to deal with every day?)  But the How can be a dark cloud that intimidates a team & constrains our vision.

The Constraint is no Longer ‘How?’

Agentic AI is akin to a magic lantern. We now have access to big blue Genei with magical powers. The Genie is neither good nor bad, but simply carries out the ‘master’s’ wishes, quite literally, and therein lies the peril. Ask the Genie to ‘increase the value of our investment portfolio’ and he or she will come up with multiple strategies, some immoral or illegal. Most people would agree that we lack the safety systems to constrain the worst of these tendencies.  Hopefully, we’ll have enlightened regulation before too long to protect society from such risks.

In any event, the AI Genie makes the How less daunting. Case in point: our innovation sprints in the consumer goods industry entail significant social media content creation including Shorts, Explainer Videos, Landing Pages in a wide variety of channels. We use these to help answer core Growth questions - (Who is the customer? What do they value? What do they buy or not buy…?).

Repurpose our extensive inventory of assets would be great, but it’s a lot of work and many partners have lacked the resources – until now. In a recent gig we were able to quickly create AI agents that do this work quickly, easily & affordably. Net result: we can run many more experiments, harvest better insights quicker & nimbly adjust our offering so that we get closer & closer to our Blue Ocean. In other words, the How is no longer the constraint. The constraint is now…

Imagining the What

What is the Ideal condition?  My senseis’ question takes on a deeper significance. The ‘What’ is no longer our strategic constraint – our imagination is the constraint.  Can we envision perfection, can we let our imagination free unconstrained by the tyranny of the How?  The Leader’s Job One is now not merely ‘What should be happening?’ but ‘What is the Ideal?’ How long will it take senior leaders and the Board to fully absorb this? And how do we build this into our governance and management system? More to come

Best wishes,

Pascal Dennis         E: pascal.dennis@leansystems.org

 

Strategy is Iterative, There are No Right Answers – Making Strategy Fun Again (Part 3)

 

Why do smart people struggle with strategy? Because smart people are used to having the right answer – and there’s no such thing in strategy. Humbling, no?

Strategy, like Innovation, exists in Aristotle’s World of Contingency – a strange place where things can be ‘other than they are’. This is the Land of Oz, the Rabbit Hole, the Land of Lost Logic, the World Behind the Curtain – pick your metaphor. It’s a place where ‘normal’ rules, conventions, and scientific truths don’t usually apply, or they do for a while & then they stop.

We’re used to Aristotle’s World of Necessity – where there are universal truths, and a bedrock of scientific knowledge. In the World of Necessity, the laws of mathematics, engineering, production physics, OpEx/Lean, finance and accounting and the like apply in a predictable way. We can figure things out following proven recipes like root cause problem solving.  One of my favorite auto manufacturing sayings is ‘Follow the recipe, and you get a Big Mac every time!’

In the World of Contingency, by contrast, you follow the recipe and sometimes you get a cheese quesadilla or a corned beef sandwich or a plate of tofu! What’s true in Innovation is true in Strategy.

Strategy is Iterative

‘We are ignorant armies clashing by night’, said Matthew Arnold. The great military strategist, Carl von Clausewitz described the inevitability of ‘Friction’.  Secretary of Defence, Paul Rumsfeld, baffled journalists with abstruse allusions to ‘known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns’. What to do?

·       Accept that Strategy (and Innovation) live in the uncertain world of Contingency.

·       Experiment, experiment, experiment – dispel the fog through quick, cheap experiments that shine light on the path. ‘Fail fast, fail forward,’ as the saying goes.

·       I would add ‘and Learn Easy.’  Keep it light and fun – people learn best when they’re laughing.

·       Analyze using the marvelous tools of AI but recognize their limitations.

·       Thereby develop intuition, ‘taste,’ gut feel, and business savvy

Strategy is iteration, strategy is doing and learning. Be humbler and accept you’re in a different world where different laws apply. Be rigorous in your process – insist on clear testable hypotheses based on a deep grasp of your current condition. Insist on rapid feedback loops and visual management so that everybody knows what’s happening. Make problem solving and innovation thinking central to your management system. Engage everybody in improvement.  Provide continual nudges in this direction – celebrate great hypotheses, great experimentation and learning.  Promote your best & brightest learners.

Best wishes,

Pascal Dennis         E: pascal.dennis@leansystems.org

 

Strategy – What’s Changed & What Hasn’t?

It’s best of times & the worst of times – and it was ever thus.  So, when it comes to Strategy deployment & execution, what has changed & what has not?

What Has Changed

AI has made it easier than ever to answer generic questions of Strategy:

·       Given our business situation, what is our aspiration & winning logic?

·       What OKRs should we use and how should we deploy them?

·       What should our dashboards look like?

·       How do we set up our Obeya (aka Control Tower, Big Room, Cockpit)?

AI also makes it much easier to answer Growth questions like:

·       What’s the size of this market, how fast is it growing and what are historical profit margins?

·       Who are the main competitors & what are their strengths & weaknesses?

·       Who are the key customers in this market, and what do they value?

·       What are current customer satisfaction levels & what opportunities might new entrants exploit?

And so, AI can help you begin to understand the nature of the challenge, and generic approaches you might use to handle it. To use chess analogy, AI can help you understand the basic shape of the board, how many pieces there typically are, and sometimes, how these pieces move.

That’s not nothing, and if we understand AI’s limitations, it’s a helpful start. But if we stop there, we’ll just release more AI-slop & create waste & hassle for our organization.

What Has Not Changed

Strategy deployment & execution remains a messy, ragged human thing, an affair of the heart and of intuition & gut feel gained by decades of work & thoughtful reflection. It’s not enough to articulate an AI-formulated-sort-of-maybe-just-okay winning logic. People can sense & seem to have an innate revulsion to AI slop.

Moreover, developing & deployment a sound strategy is akin the achieving physical fitness through a commitment to a sound workout regime. You have to do the work. If the workout regime calls for daily jogging but you decide to drive, you’ll remain flabby.  Similarly, if rather than walking the value stream and customer journey, doing the messy work of Catchball and all the rest, you default to AI, your strategy will blah-blah-blah.

Leaders at all levels have to validate the aspiration & winning logic with their teams through messy open forums I learned as ‘Catchball’ wherein the leader invites pushback & translation.  ‘Am I on the right track; is there anything I’m missing; can you please share this your teams & come back with what you can do to support this plan.’

Catchball is of course based on data, and ideally YODA – your own data & not stale, incomplete, irrelevant data provided by some out of touch corporate system. Without YODA strategy execution can quickly degenerate into HIPPO (highest paid person’s opinion) & ZEBRA (zero expertise but really adamant) management.

The Value of our strategy (or of any initiative) is a function of the Quality of the intervention and the level of Acceptance: V = Q x A. People dislike AI slop & they don’t respect phony strategies or phony people. And brings us to something else that has not changed: the mysterious catalyst/accelerant called Leadership.

In the Age of AI, Leadership is the Killer App

Leadership is the killer app. Good leaders articulate high quality strategies because they have a deep, intuitive grasp of the industry, value stream, technology, customers and their journeys. Good leaders foster acceptance of the agreed upon aspiration and winning logic because they walk the value stream and the customer journey. They ask, ‘What do you think?’ in a spirit of humble inquiry

In summary, when it comes to Strategy deployment & execution, what’s changed is AI, and what has no changed is the messy, human work of alignment, and the centrality of Leadership. AI can be a fine servant but is a poor master.

Best wishes,

Pascal Dennis         E: pascal.dennis@leansystems.org