Rowers, Watchers & Grumblers – Fukuda’s Parable in the Age of AI (part 1)

 

Some years ago, I introduced a transformation metaphor in a book called Andy & Me. Both the metaphor & book found an audience. Back then I was focused on helping to transform factories & supply chains. Nowadays, the scope is broader & includes C-suites & Boards, and the advent of Agentic AI & all it entails. The metaphor & principles behind it still hold true. The fundamentals do not change & every generation has to learn them. In this series of articles, I’ll explore the implications of Fukuda’s Parable for leaders of all levels.

Fukuda’s Parable

I first learned it from Gwen Galsworth, and I understand Gwen learned it from Ryuji Fukuda. ‘Change is a voyage’ the parable tells us. Here are the key elements:

Rowers, Watchers and Grumblers

The parable asks you to imagine a ship representing a company or a team. When a leader proposes a major change, employees in the organization will typically fall into three distinct groups:

·       Rowers (10-20%): These are the innovators & early adopters. They eagerly take up oars. They’re excited by the challenge, highly adaptable, and ready to learn new ways of working.

·       Watchers (60-80%): They neither take the oars, nor run away. They sit back & watch, waiting to see how the Rowers make out.

·       Grumblers (10-20%): These are the blockers. They cross their arms & actively resist any change. ‘This is sure to fail,’ they argue. ‘The old way was perfectly fine.’

Leaders need to develop specific tactics for each group.

Promote, Celebrate & Develop the Rowers

Developing & rewarding your Rowers is Job One. Some find this counter-intuitive.  “Shouldn’t we fix our weak points?”, they ask. This is a common mistake & cripples many a transformation. In fact, as we’ll see in later articles, we should ignore the Grumblers.

Price’s Law

Price’s Law tells us that in every population, N, half of the Value is produced by . Suppose your Design team comprises N = 100 individuals.  Ten people ( ) will provide 50% of the value. (Note: Lotka’s Law says the results are even more heavily skewed). You had better reward, celebrate and develop these folks!

How Do You Identify Your Rowers?

If we accept Price’s Law, leaders had better answer this question. The Toyota Management System (TMS) makes visible What is Actually Happening (WAH) – and this is one of its greatest benefits. You can run but you cannot hide.  Grumblers, game-players, fakers and the like are quickly exposed.

I advise my mentees to create stages, forums, and ‘shows’ wherein your stars can shine. These can be Shark Tanks, Innovation Councils, Pitch Competitions, Problem Solving Fairs and the like.  The point is to provide a showcase for your best and brightest. The focus can be Protecting the Core Business or Igniting New Growth (see my articles on Ambidexterity).

More to come, stay tuned.

Best wishes,

Pascal Dennis         E: pascal.dennis@leansystems.org