Monday, September 15, 2025

Guesswork – Battles We Have to Win, Part 4

 In the 21st century, ambidexterity wins. We must both protect the core business with Lean/OpEx and ignite new Growth using Digital methods. Here is the fourth in a series on the battles we have to win.










'Keep pressing buttons – something’s bound to happen."

Ignorance, Fear, Scatter, Guesswork and Space - these are our blockers. Today I’ll talk about Guesswork. The remedies I discuss apply to both protecting the core business with Lean/OpEx and to igniting new Growth.

Guesswork

Guesswork entails jumping to conclusions in the absence of data or expertise. Direct causes include a lack of data, and cultural or leader arrogance.

Filling the Data Void with YODA

How do we gather complete, end-to-end, and high-quality data in large complex organizations? YODA - we have to learn how to generate ‘your own data.’ Our management system is the key. Elite Lean organizations derive YODA from the daily, weekly, and monthly routines of Team Leaders, Group Leaders in operations roles, supplemented by capable support staff in Logistics, Finance, Quality and HR. The daily standard work (or ‘operating rhythm’) of a front-line Team Leader in a top-shelf Lean site will include regular walks around the zone with a checksheet generating the day’s Safety, Quality, Delivery and Cost data. This information flow animates the entire management system, including the senior level Obeya (‘Control Tower’), and is a thing of beauty.

Useful data is also available through connections with key support groups. For example, in a hospital critical infection rate data is obtainable from the Laboratories. (What’s frequency of these infections in the sample we send you each day? What other insights do they provide?’ Can you provide us with a regular report?). Similarly, in a complex logistics system, product damage can be tracked at critical loading and unloading locations. (Here’s our box damage checksheet. We’ll train your operators in how to use them, and what to look for). Technology such as sensors, drones, data analytics, and AI will augment our ability to develop YODA.

In the world of innovation and smart growth, we must learn how to develop YODA around our core customer journeys. Rapid, inexpensive experiments are the key, both digital (landing pages, ads, explainer videos) and analogue (e.g. Discover & Validation interviews, mashups mash-ups, pop-up stores).

A common failure mode is depending on a centralized, expensive, complex data system. (If we’re lucky we get some data at month-end). Is such data complete, high quality, and end-to-end? I don’t want to be misunderstood – such systems can be valuable, provided the IT & Operation teams work closely to confirm the data satisfies the user’s needs (what data, how often, to what users, through what user interface and so on). But can centralized data systems match the quality, insight, and timeliness or data gathered by people in the Gemba observing action in real time?

In my next article, I’ll address another key cause of Guesswork – cultural and leadership arrogance.

Best wishes,

Pascal Dennis         E: pascal.dennis@leansystems.org



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