Monday, September 22, 2025

Guesswork – continued

 In the 21st century, ambidexterity wins. We must both protect the core business with Lean/OpEx and ignite new Growth using Digital methods. Here is the fourth in a series on the battles we have to win.


Dangerous corporate animals

Ignorance, Fear, Scatter, Guesswork and Space - these are our blockers. Today I’ll talk continue talking about Guesswork. The remedies I discuss apply to both protecting the core business with Lean/OpEx and to igniting new Growth.

Guesswork

Guesswork entails jumping to conclusions in the absence of data or expertise. Direct causes include a lack of data, and cultural or leader arrogance. Last time I talked about how to fill the data void with YODA. Today, I’ll talk about cultural or leader arrogance.

HIPPO & ZEBRA Management

I’m the highest paid person in the room. What I say goes, and everybody knows it. That’s the HIPPO’s mindset. Data, who needs it? Facts, eye-witness accounts, I don’t care. World War I generals like Douglas Haig, John French, and Luigi Cadorna are among history’s most infamous HIPPOs. Each has a room in the Military Hall of Shame, and each valued their self-image more than the lives of their troops. Do their descendants not afflict us still?

I have zero expertise but I’m really adamant (or arrogant). That’s the ZEBRA’s mindset. Some company cultures value brashness and aggression. Oligopolies and other protected sectors are immune to the consequences of disastrous decision-making, not unlike WWI generals.

Fake it till you make it has become a cultural meme. The idea is that if you act confident and competent in a situation, even when you don't feel that way, you will eventually develop the actual desired skills and qualities. Such a mindset that can help you push past self-doubt and help you grow. But at some point, it becomes outright dishonesty. And left unchecked, ‘fake it till you make it’ creates a Guess work culture - phony, superficial, and prone to disaster.

There are other dangerous animals in the corporate menagerie including Seagulls, WOLFs, YAKs, and RHINOs, but you get the picture.

Building Your Culture’s Immune System

‘No bozos, ever’ was a Steve Jobs mantra. I’ve been lucky enough to work with some uniquely successful executives, and their common refrain is ‘You have to get the right people on the bus.’ That’s a polite rephrasing of Jobs’ mantra, no? A company’s Human Resources team and system has two essential & related roles: 1) to hire, engage, develop, reward, and retain good people, and 2) to identify & remove HIPPOs, ZEBRAs, and other dangerous corporate animals.

Company culture is the responsibility of senior leaders and the Board. Radical transparency means we leave our rank at the door. Facts trump opinion and hearsay. No facts? Sit down, and do not come here unprepared again. Working in a great organization is like playing hockey in the NHL. If you can’t skate, pass, and shoot, you won’t be on the ice. But if you’re humble, tenacious, and love the game, great companies will help you grow and succeed.

In my next article, I’ll address the fifth deadly blocker: Space.

Best wishes,

Pascal Dennis         E: pascal.dennis@leansystems.org


In case you missed earlier blogs... please feel free to have another look….

Transformation - the Battles We Have to Win - Guesswork

Transformation - the Battles We Have to Win - Scatter
Transformation - the Battles We Have to Win - Fear

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